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India Slips Further Behind China During First Five Years of Modi

莫迪执政的头五年,印度反而更落后中国了

-Beijing’s reforms, economy have fueled inroads in South Asia
- ‘It’s impossible to keep pace’ with Beijing: former official

——北京的改革和经济推动了南亚的发展
——印度前官员:要跟上北京的步伐是不可能的

新闻:



Modi addresses the nation on March 27 about destroying a low-orbiting satellite. Photographer: Narinder Nanu/AFP via Getty Images

(莫迪3月27日就摧毁一颗低轨道卫星发表全国讲话。摄影师:Narinder Nanu/法新社,盖蒂图片社)

Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a rare national address on live television last month to boast that India had destroyed a satellite in low orbit, establishing itself as a “space power” alongside the U.S., Russia and China.

上个月,印度总理纳伦德拉•莫迪罕见地在电视直播中发表全国讲话,夸耀印度摧毁了一颗低轨道卫星,确立了自己与美国、俄罗斯和中国并举的“太空强国”地位。



India Falling Behind
China continued to pull ahead of India in defense spending since Modi took office

落后的印度
莫迪上任以来,中国的国防开支继续领先印度



Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Note: Currency is constant (2016) USD

资料来源:斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所
注:以2016年美元汇率计算

“It’s impossible to keep pace with China,” said Vishnu Prakash, a former Indian ambassador to South Korea and consul general in Shanghai. “We cannot get into checkbook diplomacy with China. We don’t have that kind of economic muscle.”

“要跟上北京的步伐是不可能的”,印度前驻韩国大使、驻上海总领事毗瑟奴•普拉卡什说。“我们无法与中国展开支票外交。我们没有那种经济实力。”

Whether Modi returns to power or not, India’s next government will still be saddled with aging equipment like Soviet-era MiG warplanes, a bureaucracy that hinders military upgrades and an undersized diplomatic corps. To fend off China, it’s likely to continue shifting toward the U.S. and other like-minded countries in Asia while seeking to protect its periphery.

不管莫迪是否重新掌权,印度的下一届政府仍将背负着老化的装备,比如苏联时期的米格战机、阻碍军事升级的官僚作风,以及规模过小的外交团队。为了抵御中国,印度可能会继续转向美国和亚洲其他志同道合的国家,同时寻求保护其周边地区。

“A major long-run test for India is to ensure that China does not turn India’s own geography against it by encircling it with a string of military bases in the Indian Ocean,” said Rory Medcalf, who heads the National Security College at the Australian National University. “Delhi will play a long game. As India’s economy grows, this will still eventually translate into the world’s third-largest defense budget.”

澳大利亚国立大学国家安全学院院长罗里•梅德卡夫表示:“对印度来说,一个重大的长期考验是:确保中国不会在印度洋上建立一系列军事基地,从而使印度的地理环境不利于印度。德里将打一场持久战。随着印度经济的增长,这最终将转化为世界第三大国防预算。”

‘Falling Further’

“越来越落后”



Asia's Great Power Gap
China scores higher than India on a range of important geopolitical metrics

亚洲的强国差距
在一系列重要的地缘政治指标上,中国得分高于印度



Source: Lowy Institute Asia Power Index
Note: Resilience gauges reliance on energy imports and other factors, while future trends measures demographics, growth forecasts, etc.

资料来源:罗伊研究所“亚洲实力指数”
注:“恢复力”衡量的是对能源进口和其他因素的依赖程度,而“前景”指数衡量的是人口结构、增长预测等等。

Modi’s injection of personal enthusiasm into Indian foreign policy hasn’t led to more resources at the severely short-staffed Ministry of External Affairs, said Happymon Jacob, associate professor at New Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University’s School of International Studies. India only has roughly 940 diplomats compared to China’s estimated 7,500.

新德里尼赫鲁大学国际关系学院副教授雅各布称,莫迪将个人热情注入印度外交政策,并没有给严重人手短缺的印度外交部带来更多资源。印度只有大约940名外交官,而中国估计有7500名。

That lopsided situation is echoed in the armed forces. Xi has overseen China’s most sweeping military reforms since the 1950s, cutting back non-combat personnel and modernizing its military technology with space and cyber operations. Meanwhile, India maintains a sprawling 1.4-million strong army and spends the bulk of its defense money on salaries and pensions, rather than new equipment.

这种不平衡的局面也在军队中得到了反映。中国已经监督了中国自上世纪50年代以来最全面的军事改革,裁剪非战斗人员,通过太空和网络行动使其军事技术现代化。与此同时,印度拥有庞大的140万军队,国防开支的大部分却用于工资和养老金,而不是新装备。

“The three arms of the Indian military continue to believe they’ll fight a war separately,” Jacob said.

雅各布说:“印度军方的三大军种仍然认为他们将各自为战。”

Diplomatic Disadvantage
Despite a population of 1.3 billion, India has barely more diplomats than Singapore

外交劣势
尽管印度有13亿人口,但其外交官人数仅略多于新加坡



Source: Foreign ministries of India, Australia, Japan, U.K., U.S., and a New Delhi Institute of Chinese Studies working paper on Indian and Chinese foreign services by former Indian diplomat Kishan Rana
Note: Some countries do not officially declare size of foreign service

资料来源:印度、澳大利亚、日本、英国、美国外交部,以及印度前外交官基山•拉纳在新德里中国问题研究所撰写的关于印度和中国外交服务的工作论文
注:部分国家未正式公布外交队伍规模



“China sees real risk in India’s strengthening security ties with a formidable array of Indo-Pacific partners including America, Japan, Australia, Indonesia, France and Vietnam,” ANU’s Medcalf said. “The U.S. and others do not need India as a formal ally or as a full rival with China. They simply need India to be itself -- a capable and growing power in the Indian Ocean, whose navy can complicate life for China and whose diplomacy proves every day that China does not speak for Asia.”

“中国认为印度加强与包括美国、日本、澳洲、印尼、法国和越南在内的印度-太平洋伙伴的安全关系存在真正的风险,” 澳大利亚国立大学的梅德卡夫称。他说:“美国和其他国家不需要印度成为美国的正式盟友,也不需要印度成为中国的完全竞争对手。他们只是需要印度做好自己——一个在印度洋上有能力且不断发展的大国,其海军能让中国的生活变得复杂,并且其外交政策每天都在证明:中国并不代表亚洲。”



(From China's intrusions to Pakistan's ambushes- UPA Government has been absolutely lax in securing Indian borders. When will Centre wake up?)

(莫迪当选前的推文:从中国的入侵到巴基斯坦的伏击——统一进步联盟政府(国大党政府)在保护印度边境方面绝对松懈。政府何时觉醒?)



Beijing has also kept India out of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, which controls the export of nuclear materials, and recently blocked Indian and Western efforts at the United Nations to list as a designated terrorist the leader of a group that claimed responsibility for a suicide bombing that killed 40 Indian paramilitaries.

北京还将印度排除在核供应国集团之外——该组织控制着核材料的出口,最近还阻止了印度和西方国家在联合国将一个宣称对导致40名印度准军事部队成员死亡的自杀性爆炸事件负责的组织头目列为指定恐怖分子的努力。

“In some ways, India is better off strategically than it was five years back,” said Alyssa Ayres, a former U.S. diplomat and senior fellow for South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. “But you could, of course, also argue that India is falling further behind China instead of slowly closing the gap.”

前美国外交官、纽约外交关系委员会南亚事务高级研究员阿丽莎•艾尔斯说:“从某些方面来说,印度的战略状况比五年前要好。当然,你也能辩称,印度正在进一步落后于中国,而不是在缓慢缩小差距。”