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India slips further behind China during first fiveyears of Modi

莫迪执政的头五年,印度进一步落后于中国



正文:
Prime Minister Narendra Modimade a rare national address on live television last month to boast that Indiahad destroyed a satellite in low orbit, establishing itself as a “space power”alongside the US, Russia and China.

印度总理纳伦德拉•莫迪上月罕见地在电视直播中发表全国讲话,吹嘘印度摧毁了一颗低轨道卫星,将自己打造为与美国、俄罗斯和中国并举的“太空强国”。

For a leader who lambasted hispredecessor for failing to counter long-term geopolitical foe China, themissile test was a moment of “utmost pride.” Yet China conducted a similar testmore than a decade ago in 2007, prompting critics to note that India’s show ofstrength was merely highlighting the wide strategic gap between the world’s twomost populous countries.

对于一位抨击前任未能对抗长期地缘政治对手中国的领导人来说,此次导弹试验是一个“无比自豪”的时刻。然而,中国在10多年前的2007年进行了一次类似的测试,这促使批评人士指出,印度的实力展示只是突显了世界上人口最多的两个国家之间的巨大战略差距。



Whether Modi returns to poweror not, India’s next government will still be saddled with aging equipment likeSoviet-era MiG warplanes, a bureaucracy that hinders military upgrades and anundersized diplomatic corps. To fend off China, it’s likely to continueshifting toward the U.S. and other like-minded countries in Asia while seekingto protect its periphery.

不管莫迪是否重新掌权,印度下一届政府仍将受困于老化的装备(比如苏联时期的米格战机)、阻碍军事升级的官僚作风、以及规模过小的外交团队。为了抵御中国,印度可能会继续转向美国和亚洲其他志同道合的国家,同时寻求保护其周边地区。

“A major long-run test for India is to ensure that China does not turnIndia’s own geography against it by encircling it with a string of militarybases in the Indian Ocean,” said Rory Medcalf, who heads the National SecurityCollege at the Australian National University. “Delhi will play a long game. AsIndia’s economy grows, this will still eventually translate into the world’sthird-largest defense budget.”

澳大利亚国立大学国家安全学院院长罗里•梅德卡夫表示:“对印度来说,一个重大的长期考验是,确保中国不会在印度洋上建立一系列军事基地,从而使印度的地理环境不利于印度。德里将面临一场持久战。随着印度经济的增长,印度最终将获得世界第三大国防预算。”

India’s economy has expandedto $2.6 trillion, eclipsing France, while its largest trading partner is China.

印度的经济规模已经扩大到2.6万亿美元,超过了法国,而印度最大的贸易伙伴是中国。

Under Modi, the country hasskillfully handled its relationship with China, increased defense spending andgranted the armed forces greater autonomy, said G.V.L. Narasimha Rao, an Indianlawmaker and spokesman for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party.

印度国会议员、执政党印度人民党发言人拉奥表示,在莫迪的领导下,印度巧妙处理了与中国的关系,增加了国防开支,赋予军队更大的自治权。

"Admittedly, China has amuch larger economy and defense budget in line with its own needs andplans," Rao said. "India is not in any arms race with any country andhas a defense budget that is adequate as per its needs. Streamlining the armedforces and reforms has been an ongoing process."

拉奥说:“不可否认,中国的经济和国防预算要大得多,符合中国的需要和计划。但印度没有和任何国家进行任何军备竞赛,印度的国防预算也符合印度的需要。精简军队和改革是一个持续的过程。”

Still, India continues to lagChina on every geopolitical metric, according to the Lowy Institute’s Asiapower index, which ranks countries according to economic resources, militarycapabilities and diplomatic influence.

不过,洛伊研究所的亚洲实力指数显示,印度在地缘政治指标上仍落后于中国。该指数根据经济资源、军事实力和外交影响力对各国进行排名。

Modi’s injection of personalenthusiasm into Indian foreign policy hasn’t led to more resources at theseverely short-staffed Ministry of External Affairs, said Happymon Jacob,associate professor at New Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University’s School ofInternational Studies. India only has roughly 940 diplomats compared to China’sestimated 7,500.

新德里尼赫鲁大学国际关系学院副教授雅各布表示,莫迪将个人热情注入印度外交政策,但并没有给严重人手短缺的印度外交部带来更多资源。印度只有大约940名外交官,而中国估计有7500名。

That lopsided situation isechoed in the armed forces. Xi has overseen China’s most sweeping militaryreforms since the 1950s, cutting back non-combat personnel and modernizing itsmilitary technology with space and cyber operations. Meanwhile, India maintainsa sprawling 1.4-million strong army and spends the bulk of its defense money onsalaries and pensions, rather than new equipment.

这种不平衡的局面在武装部队中得到了反映。中国亲自监督中国自1950年代以来最全面的军事改革,减少非战斗人员,并推进空间和网络军事技术的现代化。与此同时,印度拥有庞大的140万军队,国防开支的大部分用于支付工资和养老金,而不是采购新装备。

“The three arms of the Indian military continue to believe they’ll fight awar separately,” Jacob said.

雅各布表示:“印度军方的三支部队仍然认为他们将独立作战。”

Even Modi’s announcement ofthe anti-satellite missile test will be mostly useless against China, accordingto Vipin Narang, an MIT associate political science professor.

麻省理工学院政治学副教授维平•纳朗表示,即使莫迪宣布进行反卫星导弹试验,对中国也基本上毫无用处。

“Not only does China have more satellites that India would likely have tokill, but China may have an advantage in killing Indian satellites,” Narangsaid.

纳朗表示:“中国不但拥有更多的印度必须击毁的卫星,而且在击杀印度卫星方面可能具有优势。”



“Competition is everywhere, including between India and China, but the keypoint here is the essence of the competition,” said Wang Peng, an associateresearch fellow of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at the RenminUniversity of China. “India and China have the potential for benigncompetition.”

“竞争无处不在,包括中印之间,但这里的关键是竞争的本质,”中国人民大学重阳金融研究所副研究员王鹏表示。“印度和中国具有良性竞争的潜力。”

Still, China’s infrastructureinvestments are shifting the long-term strategic picture. Beijing has pouredmore than $60 billion in the China Pakistan Economic Corridor projects, as wellas in ports from Myanmar to Sri Lanka. India’s competing infrastructureinvestments have been "lackluster," according to a recent HenryJackson Society report on infrastructure in the Indo-Pacific.

不过,中国的基础设施投资正在改变长期战略格局。北京向中巴经济走廊项目以及缅甸、斯里兰卡的港口投入了600多亿美元。据亨利·杰克逊协会最近一份关于印-太地区基础设施的报告,印度与之竞争的基础设施投资一直“缺乏起色”。

Beijing has also kept Indiaout of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, which controls the export of nuclearmaterials, and recently blocked Indian and Western efforts at the UnitedNations to list as a designated terrorist the leader of a group that claimedresponsibility for a suicide bombing that killed 40 Indian paramilitaries.

北京还阻止印度加入核供应国集团、控制核材料的出口,最近还阻止印度和西方在联合国恐怖分子列表上加入一个指定的恐怖组织的首脑,该首脑声称对造成印度准军事部队40人死亡的自杀式炸弹袭击负责。

“In some ways, India is better off strategically than it was five years back,”said Alyssa Ayres, a former U.S. diplomat and senior fellow for South Asia atthe Council on Foreign Relations in New York. “But you could, of course, alsoargue that India is falling further behind China instead of slowly closing thegap.”

前美国外交官、纽约外交关系委员会南亚事务高级研究员阿丽莎·艾尔斯表示:“从某些方面来说,印度的战略状况比五年前要好。当然,你也可以辩称,印度正进一步落后于中国,而不是缓慢缩小差距。”