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The 'patient' Fed has been lamenting the"lack of inflation" for far too long. It is about to get its wish.

很长时间以来,美联储一直说美国的通货膨胀率不够,现在,美联储终于可以实现自己的愿望了。

American food merchants are struggling toimport fruits and vegetables from Mexico as wait times at port of entries alongthe Mexico–US border have surged because of a shift in Customs and BorderProtection (CBP) personnel away from the port of entries to remote regions ofthe border to fight illegal crossings. As a result, shipments of food havedramatically declined in recent weeks, and the result is an imminent spike inimported food prices in the coming months that could put a sizeable dent inconsumer wallets.

美国食品商正在努力从墨西哥进口水果和蔬菜,墨西哥-美国边境口岸的通关等待时间激增,原因是海关和边境保护人员在边境偏远地区打击非法入境。因此,近几周来,食品出关量大幅下降,其结果就是未来几个月,进口食品的价格将飙升,这可能使得消费者的钱包大幅缩水。

Fruit and vegetable importers thatwholesale to grocery stores throughout the US, could inflate prices by at least20% to 40% if the wait times continue, with avocado prices already soaring (see"Mexican Avocado Prices Explode By Most In A Decade After Trump BorderThreat").

通过进口商批发到美国各地零售店的水果和蔬菜,如果通关等待时间继续这样下去,价格可能会上涨至少20%至40%,而鳄梨的价格已经飙升(详情参考“在特朗普威胁关闭边界后,墨西哥鳄梨价格十年内最大幅度的上涨”)。

And it's not just avocados: cucumbers,eggplants, bell peppers, squash, cherry tomatoes, watermelons, and most otherfruit and vegetables imported from the tropics would be affected.

不仅仅是鳄梨:黄瓜、茄子、甜椒、南瓜、樱桃、番茄、西瓜,以及大多数从热带进口的水果和蔬菜都会受到影响。

"(The) Mexican border, it’s one of themost important crossings to the United States," said Joshua Duran, AmoreProduce sales representative.

“墨西哥边境,是到美国最重要的过境地点之一,”农产品销售代表杜兰说。

About 43% of all US fruit and vegetablesoriginate from Mexico. In the last several decades, Mexico has become the toptrading partner with the US.

美国约43%的水果和蔬菜来自墨西哥。在过去的几十年里,墨西哥已经成为美国最大的贸易伙伴。



"We couldn’t get ithere and we couldn’t send it to the customers in the north," Duran said.

杜兰说:“我们不能在这里买这些(不新鲜的)东西,也不能把它们送到北方的顾客手中。”

Marabella Produce owner Alejandro Knightsuggested that wait time increases have impacted his cold-storage levels in thelast month. Knight said his warehouse is always at full capacity, but now, thefloors are covered with empty pallets. Most of the produce Knight receives fromMexico is spoiled, thanks to wait time increases, warehouse workers have toimmediately throw out the produce once it arrives.

马拉贝拉的农产品经销商亚历德罗.奈特认为,通关等待时间的增加已经影响到了他上个月的冷藏库存量。奈特说他的仓库一直都是满负荷在运转,但现在仓库的地板上是空的,大部分从墨西哥运过来的农产品都是坏的,由于通关等待时间的增加,仓库工作人员在农产品运过来之后就得立即把它们扔掉。

"We cannot deliver a fresh productanymore if we have to wait for each load to cross, five to six days, it'simpossible to work like this," Knight warned.

奈特警告说:“如果每批货物通关我们都必须等待五到六天,我们就没法再提供新鲜的农产品了,这样没法继续下去的。”

Knight said Mexican farmers are now"afraid" to export fruits and vegetables to the US because ofextended wait times.

奈特说,由于通关等待时间的延长,墨西哥农民现在“害怕”向美国出口水果和蔬菜。

Salavador Contreras, an economist at theUniversity of Texas Rio Grande Valley, said if wait times increase, it couldinflate produce for everyday American consumers.

德克萨斯大学格兰德谷分校的经济学家萨拉瓦多·孔特雷拉斯表示,如果通关的等待时间延长,可能会使美国日常消费者购买到的农产品价格上涨。

"It's going to be felt at the grocerystores when we start paying more for limes and our avocados at the grocerystore," Contreras said.

孔特雷拉斯说:“当我们开始在零售店为酸橙和鳄梨支付更多的费用时,人们会在零售店感受到这种感觉。”

If the wait times persist at the border, inthe coming months Americans will be shocked by soaring prices in the producesection of their local grocery stores, a move that could reverse consumersentiment right before an important election year. But at least the Fed will bedelighted: it will have achieved some of that "symmetric" inflationovershoot it has been seeking for so long... and all thanks to Trump.

如果边境地区通关的等待时间继续这样下去,在接下来的几个月时间里,当地零售店部分农产品的价格飙升将会使美国人震惊,这可能会在一个重要的选举年前扭转消费者们的情绪。但至少美联储会感到高兴:它将实现它长期以来一直想要的通货膨胀…这多亏了特朗普。