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【博客1】Taiwan's Trump?

台湾的特朗普?



Taiwanese voters may soon have a novel tool to break the political gridlock undermining the economy: a CEO president.

台湾人可能已经找到了一种打破政治僵局、重启经济的新工具:那就是选举一位商业首席执行官来当台湾总统。

Foxconn Chairman Terry Gou is tossing his hat into the ring ahead of a 2020 campaign already captivating the island’s 24 million people. The impulse of supporters is clear enough: only a brash and visionary businessman can fix Taipei’s dysfunction.

富士康董事长郭台铭突然宣布自己参加台湾2020年领导人选举,已经吸引了2400万台湾人的目光。
那些支持郭台铭的人的理由是显而易见的:只有果断富有远见的商人才能修复台北的政治顽疾。



Yet the beware-CEOs-seeking-elected-office line has ample support here in Asia. Thailand’s Thaksin Shinawatra leaps to mind.

然而,在现实的亚洲,CEO们弃商入政的举动得到了广泛的支持。比如泰国的他信•西那瓦。

Thaksin’s other sin was putting showmanship over substance. Rather than level the playing field and spread the benefits of growth, Thaksin doled out cash to rural communities. The sugar highs from that largess did zero to raise competitiveness, productivity or innovation. But it sure did endear Thaksin to the masses, even after his removal in a 2006 coup.

他信执政时期过于注重包装表演自己,没有做多少实事。
他信没有营造公平的竞争环境,也没有为社会各阶层分享经济增长带来的好处,只是一味的向农村社区发钱。
这种慈善性质的慷慨无法提高国家竞争力、生产率或创新能力。但当他信在2006年的一次政变中被赶下台后,他信在泰国广大下层阶级中的声望依然很高。

The problem? Politics is about inspiring and cajoling others to see your vision and help implement it. . They tend to rely more on gut feelings than empirical data sets. CEOs tend to see themselves as hirers, not people comfortable with asking voters for support.

所以你现在看清问题的本质所在了吧?
政治本身就是引导和哄骗大多数人相信他吹的牛,并帮助他实现它。这些CEO出身的领导者更倾向于依靠直觉,而不是经验数据来决定问题。
他们还倾向于把自己视为老板,而不是向选民寻求支持的人。

South Koreans have lots to say about all this, harboring buyer’s remorse over electing Lee Myung-bak in 2008. At the time, Lee’s past as CEO of Hyundai Group’s engineering and construction units seemed an asset. The economy had been plodding along under the Roh Moo-hyun, a liberal human-rights activity with little economic experience.

对于这一切,韩国人有很多话要说,他们对2008年李明博当选总统十分懊悔。在卢武铉的领导下,韩国经济一直增长缓慢。于是,李明博担任现代集团工程和建筑部门CEO的经历似乎成为了救国救民的良药。



【博客2】U.S. Should Still Welcome Investment From China

美国应该欢迎中国投资

Relations between the U.S. and China are today undergoing some of their worst strains since the two established diplomatic ties 40 years ago. Negotiators from the world’s No. 1 and No. 2 economies are engaged in high-stakes talks to end what’s widely been called a “trade war.” Just this month, U.S. Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan named China as America’s top national security threat. And yet at the same time, the two countries are among each other’s most important partners in international business.

今天,美国和中国的关系正经历着自40年前两国建交以来最严重的紧张局势。来自世界第一和第二大经济体的谈判代表正在进行谈判,以结束“贸易战”。就在本月,美国代理国防部长帕特里克·沙纳汉将中国列为美国最大的国家安全威胁。但与此同时,两国都是彼此在国际贸易中最重要的合作伙伴。

Unless the area involved touches on national security matters, it would be a mistake for the U.S. to ignore the potential economic benefits of attracting more investment from China even today, says Craig Allen, president of the U.S.-China Business Council, a non-profit group supported by about 200 U.S. companies that seeks to expand trade and investment between the two countries.

美中贸易委员会主席克雷格·艾伦表示,除非投资领域涉及到国家安全问题,否则,美国不应该忽视从中国吸引更多投资的潜在机会。一个由大约200家美国公司支持的非营利组织,正在寻求扩大两国之间的贸易和投资规模。

“Last year, Chinese investment in the U.S. declined by 80%,” Allen noted in a recent interview. “In my view, and I think in the view of most mayors, governors and unemployed Americans who are looking for a job, that's a tragedy. We should put out the welcome mat for Chinese investors in the United States, absent any national security concerns.

艾伦在最近的一次采访中指出:“去年,中国在美国的投资下降了80%。”
“在我看来,这对大多数寻求创造就业机会的市长、州长和失业的美国人来说,是一场悲剧。在不违背国家安全担忧的情况下,我们应该为在美国的中国投资者,铺上欢迎的红毯。“



We also know that there are challenges with any agreement. And I think that we could articulate them pretty clearly. One is when do the tariffs come down, and which tariffs come down? Both sides have tariffs. They tariff 85% of our products; we tariff 50% of theirs. Do they come down commensurately? Do the Chinese bring theirs down to normal and we keep some of ours? That's actually a very hard issue.

我们还知道,任何协议都存在变数。
关税何时降下来,又有哪些关税会降下来了?双方都有关税。他们对我们的产品征收85%的关税;我们对他们的产品征收50%的关税。双方的关税会同时降低吗?中国是不是将关税全部恢复道正常正常水平,而我们却仍然有所保留呢?这都是有待解决的问题。

How the United States and China cooperate and compete in the technology area is under debate. It's very important that we address these issues. China and the United States have both benefited from cooperation in the technology area enormously.

美国和中国如何在技术领域进行合作和竞争还在争论之中。我们需要解决这些问题。中美两国都将从技术领域的合作中受益匪浅。

R.What about U.S. investment into China?
S.A It’s a really interesting question. We don't have good data on this, China is going to be about a third of global growth for the next five years – a rough estimate.

问:美国对华投资情况如何?
答:这是个很有趣的问题。关于这一点我们没有很好的数据。但是根据粗略的估计,中国在未来五年的经济增长将占全球经济增长的三分之一。

Q. Do you believe that?
A. I do. What I don't believe is that those opportunities will be equally distributed across the world, so in other words, a lot of that is going to be reserved for Chinese. So many American companies are continuing their investment plans regardless. But many are adapting supply chains as well.

问:你相信这一点吗?
答:我相信中国经济会继续增长。但我不相信的是,中国会将这些增长带来的机会均分给世界各地,因此,换句话说,许多机会仍将保留给中国人。
尽管如此,许多美国公司仍在继续他们的投资计划。许多企业也在调整供应链。